Turkey’s birth rate is falling despite government efforts to reverse the trend. Part of our Gilead Watch campaign, this blog explores Turkey’s demographic changes and the impact of Erdoğan’s pronatalist policies.

Erdoğan’s Pronatalist Agenda

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has long been urging Turkish families to have more children. In 2008, he declared that families should have “at least three children” to sustain the country’s demographics. Since then, he has repeatedly emphasised that large families are essential to Turkey’s strength.

In 2016, he sparked controversy by stating that women who choose not to have children are “deficient” and “incomplete.” He has also linked Turkey’s declining birth rates to moral and societal decay, frequently criticising feminism for undermining traditional family values.

Erdoğan’s government has backed these words with policies. This year, Turkey will observe the “Year of the Family,” a campaign offering financial incentives to encourage childbirth while reinforcing conservative gender roles. His administration has also rolled back reproductive rights, restricted access to contraception and portrayed LGBTQ+ communities as threats to traditional family structures.

Turkey’s birth rate

Despite Erdoğan’s push for higher birth rates, Turkey is experiencing a demographic shift. The country’s birth rate has steadily declined, reaching a low of 958,000 births in 2023. The total fertility rate (the average number of children a woman is expected to have in her lifetime) now stands at 1.51 – well below the replacement level of 2.1.

Economic instability is a significant factor. Inflation has eroded wages and housing costs have soared, making child-rearing increasingly unaffordable. Many young people, particularly women, are prioritising careers and education over early motherhood. Urbanisation also plays a role, with families in cities tending to have fewer children than those in rural areas.

Meanwhile, restrictive policies on contraception have not reversed this trend. Turkey ranks poorly in contraceptive access compared to other European nations. Reduced reproductive autonomy has not resulted in higher birth rates but has instead limited women’s control over their family planning decisions.

Rethinking the Population Debate

Turkey’s demographic changes, framed as a crisis by Erdoğan, are in keeping with global patterns seen in high- and middle-income countries. Rather than viewing lower birth rates as a threat, they should be seen as an opportunity to reshape policies for a changing society in a changing world.

A declining birth rate does present challenges, including an ageing population and potential labour shortages. However, these issues can be managed through policies that support older workers, encourage workforce participation and invest in education and automation.

Moreover, supporting reproductive rights and gender equality empowers individuals to make informed choices about family size. Encouraging voluntary, well-supported family planning leads to healthier, more stable societies, rather than enforcing childbirth through restrictive policies.

While Erdoğan calls for higher birth rates, the country’s population dynamics are shifting due to economic realities, social progress and changing personal priorities. Recognising and adapting to these changes, rather than resisting them, will be key to shaping Turkey’s future, sustainably and justly.