Part of our Gilead Watch series, this blog examines the demographic challenges in Belarus where President Alexander Lukashenko last month secured a seventh term in an election widely dismissed as neither free nor fair. It explores the government’s emphasis on increasing birth rates, the country’s declining fertility trends and the implications of these policies for women’s autonomy, all within the context of Belarus’ birth rate trends.

Since gaining independence in 1991, Belarus has faced significant demographic challenges, with a steady decline in birth rates and an ageing, decreasing population. This demographic shift has been compounded by economic instability and increasing emigration, particularly among younger generations seeking opportunities abroad.

Despite efforts by the government to encourage higher birth rates, these trends reflect broader regional challenges shared by many post-Soviet states, highlighting the need for policy reform to address the population’s evolving needs.

The 2025 Election and the Future of Family Policies

The 2025 presidential election in Belarus, held on 26 January and described as a ‘sham’, was significant for the future of demographic policies and women’s reproductive rights in the country. Reproductive rights include the ability to access contraception and safe abortion services, ensuring people can make informed choices about their reproductive health.

President Alexander Lukashenko has a long-standing grip on power, winning every election since 1994. Given the highly controlled political environment and Lukashenko’s unchallenged authority, his vision for Belarus continues to shape the country’s approach to demographic issues and the reproductive rights of its people. Rather than focusing on the complex realities of population decline and ageing, Lukashenko’s government remains fixated on policies that push for larger families, sometimes at the expense of individual rights.

Lukashenko’s Pronouncements on Birth Rates and Family Policies

In recent years, President Lukashenko has often emphasised the need for higher birth rates to ensure the country’s future. In a speech in July 2023, he urged women to “give birth to three children each, because we need people.” Like many other European leaders, he believes increasing the population is crucial to the nation’s stability and growth. He has previously framed motherhood as the “highest purpose and meaning of life,” echoing a similar sentiment during a March 2023 awards ceremony for women with five or more children.

Lukashenko’s comments correspond with his administration’s broader focus on family policies to boost the birth rate and make it harder for women to control their fertility. In 2014, legislation was passed that allowed doctors to opt out of performing abortions on grounds of conscience, significantly restricting access to medical abortions. It also introduced a collection of benefits to encourage people to have more children, including monetary incentives for large families and state support for house building.

In 2022, the United Nations Women’s Gender Equality Brief described challenges in Belarus around “the lack of consistently and comprehensively available primary health and sexual and reproductive health rights and services.” According to the European Policy Atlas, Belarus was ranked 40th out of 47 European nations for policies on contraception access and family planning counselling in February 2024, limiting Belarusians’ ability to control their fertility.

The Demographic Realities in Belarus

While Lukashenko focuses on increasing the number of children, Belarus’ demographic trends paint a different picture. Birth rates have been declining steadily in recent years. According to Database Earth, the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) – the average number of children a woman will have over her lifetime – is currently 1.2. The TFR falls well below the 2.1 required to maintain a steady population. This trend is not unique to Belarus but is part of a broader phenomenon that many countries across the globe are experiencing.

The government’s focus on increasing birth rates misses the mark by ignoring the broader societal and economic implications of these trends. It ignores the complex realities of modern family life, where economic stability, access to education and personal freedom often shape decisions about having children.

The Need for Creative Solutions

At Population Matters, we consider lowering birth rates a positive development for both people and the planet, if lower birth rates are a result of individuals who have access to information and health services, and decisions are made free from discrimination, coercion and violence. When women and girls are educated and have access to healthcare and family planning, they typically choose to have fewer children. Empowered people being able to make their own choices are at the heart of our mission.

Coercive pronatalist policies cannot solve Belarus’s demographic challenges, including an ageing population; instead, creative, rights-based solutions are needed. Our report, Silver Linings not Silver Burdens, highlights several such solutions. These include reducing unemployment, stimulating greater productivity – especially by exploiting new technology – and valuing older people and the contributions they can make to society. This should also involve investing more resources in their wellbeing.

We advocate for policies that respect reproductive rights and foster choice, while also considering the broader environmental and economic implications of population growth. In a world with finite resources and increasing environmental pressures, an acceptance of lower birth rates – combined with policies that ease the effects of demographic shifts – is essential for a balanced and sustainable future.

Many of these issues are discussed annually at the United Nations Commission on Population and Development (CPD). We will be attending the 58th session of CPD, taking place from 7–11 April 2025 at the UN Headquarters in New York, where we will release a new report examining child mortality and host a hybrid event to explore these critical issues. These themes are also central to our new five-year strategy, which we will launch on Wednesday, 19 February.