A common myth is that we don’t need to worry about population growth because it will stop soon anyway. But the facts simply don’t back that up.

Population growth rates are slowing in many places in the world. This is largely thanks to better access to education, healthcare and family planning. However, the global population is still expected to reach 10 billion by 2061, almost two billion (or 25 per cent) more than today.

Action not apathy

Every two years, the United Nations (UN) makes projections for future population growth. This year, their most likely scenario projects a population of 10.3bn in the 2080s.

Many factors influence population growth, as demonstrated by the wide range of UN projections based on different assumptions. Within a 95 per cent certainty range, the difference between the highest and lowest population projections for 2100 is 3.5 billion people. This significant variation highlights the impact that positive actions can have on shaping our future population numbers throughout this century.

Some might think our population has stopped growing already, partly due to misleading headlines about declining birth rates. While it’s true that both population growth rates and average family sizes are shrinking, the total number of people added to the planet each year has been on the rise until recently.

In 1970, the world population was 3.7 billion. The population was growing at a rate of two per cent per year, which meant about 75 million new people. In 2023, the growth rate stood at 0.9 per cent, less than half, but because the global population is now much bigger still over 73 million people were added.

Overshoot

The idea that the population growth will stop growing soon so there’s no need to worry also ignores the fact that we are already taking more from the planet than it can provide. 1 August 2024 was Earth Overshoot Day, the day when humanity’s demand for ecological resources and services in a given year exceeds what Earth can regenerate in that same year.

This also doesn’t tell the full story: it is an average and ignores the enormous disparity between different countries. For instance, Overshoot Day in the USA is the 14 March. Thailand is on 23 August; Ghana the 10 November. We need to discover ways to live within the Earth’s means.

If you’re motivated to take on this population myth, please download the graphic below and share it on social media.